Why nations that fail women fail「精读 • 经济学人」

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(本文选自经济学人9.11 P10 Leaders，权侵删。)

选自TE20210911，Leaders

(新闻仅做学英文用途，不代表任何个人立场)

标题

Sex and geopolitics

Why nations that fail women fail

And why foreign policy should pay more heed to half of humanity

原文截图

After america and its allies toppled the Taliban in 2001, primary-school enrolment of Afghan girls rose from 0% to above 80%. Infant mortality fell by half. Forced marriage was made illegal. Many of those schools were ropy, and many families ignored the law. But no one seriously doubts that Afghan women and girls have made great gains in the past 20 years, or that those gains are now in jeopardy.

The United States is “committed to advancing gender equal ity” through its foreign policy, according to the State Department. Bequeathing billions of dollars-worth of arms and a medium-size country to a group of violent misogynists is an odd way to show it. Of course, foreign policy involves difficult trade-offs. But there is growing evidence that Hillary Clinton was on to something when she said, a decade ago, that “The subjugation of women is…a threat to the common security of our world.” Societies that oppress women are far more likely to be violent and unstable.

There are several possible reasons for this. In many places girls are selectively aborted or fatally neglected. This has led to skewed sex ratios, which mean millions of young men are doomed to remain single. Frustrated young men are more likely to commit violent crimes or join rebel groups. Recruiters for Boko Haram and Islamic State know this, and promise them “wives” as the spoils of war. Polygamy also creates a surplus of single young men. Multiple wives for men at the top means brooding bachelorhood for those at the bottom.

All conflicts have complex causes. But it may be no coincidence that Kashmir has one of the most unbalanced sex ratios in India, or that all of the 20 most turbulent countries on the Fragile States index compiled by the Fund for Peace in Washington practise polygamy. In Guinea, where a coup took place on September 5th, 42% of married women aged 15-49 are in polygamous unions. China’s police state keeps a lid on its many surplus men, but its neighbours sometimes wonder whether their aggression may some day seek an outlet.

Outside rich democracies, the male kinship group is still the basic unit of many societies. Such groups emerged largely for self -defence: male cousins would unite to repel outsiders. Today, they mostly cause trouble. Tit-for-tat clan feuds spatter blood across the Middle East and the Sahel. Tribes compete to control the state, often violently, so they can divvy up jobs and loot among their kin. Those states become corrupt and dysfunctional, alienating citizens and boosting support for jihadists who promise to govern more justly.

Societies based on male bonding tend to subjugate women. Fathers choose whom their daughters will marry. Often there is a bride price—the groom’s family pay what are sometimes hefty sums to the bride’s family. This gives fathers an incentive to make their daughters marry early. It is not a small problem. Dowries or bride prices are common in half the world’s countries. A fifth of the world’s young women were married before the age of 18; a twentieth before 15. Child brides are more likely to drop out of school, less able to stand up to abusive husbands and less likely to raise healthy, well-educated children.

Researchers at Texas a&m and Brigham Young universities compiled a global index of pre-modern attitudes to women, including sexist family laws, unequal property rights, early marriage for girls, patrilocal marriage, polygamy, bride prices, son preference, violence against women and legal indulgence of it (for example, can a rapist escape punishment by marrying his victim?). It turned out to be highly correlated with violent instability in a country.

Various lessons can be drawn from this. In addition to their usual analytical tools, policymakers should study geopolitics through the prism of sex. That index of sexist customs, had it existed 20 years ago, would have warned them how hard nation-building would be in Afghanistan and Iraq. Today, it suggests that stability cannot be taken for granted in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan or even India.

Peace talks should include women. Between 1992 and 2019, only 13% of negotiators and 6% of signatories of peace deals were female. Yet peace tends to last longer when women are at the table. This may be because they are more ready to compromise; or perhaps because a room without women implies a stitch-up between the men with guns without input from non-combatants. Liberia got this right and ended a ghastly civil war; Afghanistan’s new rulers have not.

More broadly, governments should mean it when they say they want to liberate half of humanity. Educate girls, many of whom have quit school to work or marry since covid-19 impoverished their families. Enforce bans on child marriage and on female genital mutilation, hard though that is in remote villages. Do not recognise polygamy. Equalise inheritance rights. Teach boys not to hit women. Introduce public pensions, which undermine the tradition whereby couples are expected to live with the man’s parents, because the elderly have no other means of support.

Most of these are tasks for national governments, but outsiders have some influence. Since Western donors started harping on about girls’ education, more girls have gone to school (primary enrolment has risen from 64% in 1970 to nearly 90% today). Campaigners against early marriage have prompted more than 50 countries to raise the minimum age since 2000. Boys need to learn about non-violence from local mentors, but ideas about how to design such programmes are shared through a global network of charities and think-tanks. Donors such as usaid and the World Bank have done a fair job of promoting property rights for women, even if their Afghan efforts are about to go up in smoke.

The radical notion

Foreign policy should not be naive. Countries have vital interests, and need to deter foes. Geopolitics should not be viewed solely through a feminist lens, any more than it should be viewed solely in terms of economics or nuclear non-proliferation. But policymakers who fail to consider the interests of half the population cannot hope to understand the world.

参考译文

2001年美国及其盟友推翻塔利班后，阿富汗女童的小学入学率从0增至80%以上，婴儿死亡率下降了一半，强迫婚姻被定为非法。尽管许多学校都很糟糕，许多家庭也无视法律，但没有人真得怀疑过阿富汗妇女和女孩在过去20年中取得的巨大成就，而这些成就正岌岌可危。

美国国务院表示，美国将通过外交政策“致力于促进性别平等”。把价值数十亿美元的武器和一个中等规模的国家留给一群暴力厌女主义者，是一种奇怪的表现方式。当然，外交政策涉及到艰难的权衡。但越来越多的证据表明，希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)在十年前说过的话是有道理的，她说:“对女性的压迫……威胁着全世界的共同安全。”压迫女性的社会更有可能充满暴力和不稳定。

这可能有几个原因。在许多地方，女孩被选择性流产或被严重忽视。这导致了性别比例失调，数百万年轻男性注定要单身。沮丧的年轻人更有可能犯下暴力罪行或加入反叛组织。博科圣地和伊斯兰国的招募人员深知这点，并向他们许诺将“妻子”作为战利品。一夫多妻制还造成了单身青年过剩。社会地位高的男人拥有多个妻子，而社会地位低的男人却只能是单身汉。

造成冲突的原因都很复杂。但是，很多情况可能并非巧合 --- 克什米尔是印度性别比例失衡最严重的地区之一，在华盛顿和平基金会编制的脆弱国家指数中，20个最动荡的国家都实行一夫多妻制。9月5日发生了一场政变的几内亚，42%的15-49岁已婚妇女属于一夫多妻制。（此处略）

在富裕的民主国家之外，男性亲属群体仍然是许多社会的基本单位。这些群体的出现主要是为了自卫:堂兄弟会联合起来排斥外人。如今，它们大多会带来麻烦。针锋相对的氏族仇恨在整个中东和萨赫勒地区掀起了腥风血雨。部落之间为了控制国家，往往通过暴力行为展开激烈竞争，这样他们就可以在自己的亲属之间分配工作。这些国家变得腐败、功能失调，疏远了公民，增加了对圣战分子的支持，圣战分子承诺会更加公正地治理国家。

建立在男性关系基础上的社会往往会压制女性。父亲选择女儿嫁给谁。结婚通常会有彩礼——新郎家有时会向新娘家送高额彩礼。这就是父亲们让女儿早婚的原因。这不是一个小问题。嫁妆或彩礼在世界上一半的国家都很普遍。全球五分之一的年轻女性在18岁之前结婚; 二十分之一的女孩在15岁之前结婚。童养媳更有可能辍学，更不能直面施虐的丈夫，更不可能抚养健康、受过良好教育的孩子。

德州农工大学和杨百翰大学的研究人员编制了一份前现代社会对女性态度的全球索引，包括性别歧视的家庭法律、不平等的财产权利、女孩早婚、从父居婚姻、一夫多妻制、彩礼、重男轻女、对女性的暴力和法律纵容(例如，强x犯能通过与受害者结婚来逃脱惩罚吗?) 结果证明，这与一个国家的剧烈不稳定高度相关。

我们可以从中吸取各种教训。除了常用的分析工具，决策者还应该从性别角度研究地缘政治。如果这一性别歧视指数在20年前就存在的话，它会提醒人们，在阿富汗和伊拉克建立国家会有多难。如今它表明，人们不能将沙特阿拉伯、巴基斯坦甚至印度的稳定视为理所当然。

和平谈判应该包括女性。1992年至2019年间，只有13%的谈判代表和 6%的和平协议签署人是女性。然而，当女性参与谈判时，和平往往会持续更久。这可能是因为她们更愿意妥协;或者可能是因为一个没有女人的房间意味着没有非战斗人员参与的持枪男子之间的较量。利比里亚做对了，因此结束了一场可怕的内战; 而阿富汗的新统治者却没有做到。

更广泛地说，当政府说他们想解放女性时，他们应该是认真的。让女孩接受教育，新冠病毒病使家庭陷入贫困以来，许多女孩辍学去工作或结婚。强制执行禁止童婚和“割礼”的法令，尽管这在偏远的村庄很难做到。否认一夫多妻制，平等继承权，教导男孩不要打女人。实行公共养老金制度，这破坏了夫妻必须与男子的父母生活在一起的传统，因为老年人没有其他生活来源。

其中大多数是各国政府的任务，但外界有一定的影响力。从西方捐助者反复谈论女孩的教育问题以来，越来越多的女孩上了学(小学入学率从1970年的64% 上升到今天的近90%)。自2000年以来，反对早婚的活动人士促使50多个国家提高了最低婚龄。男孩需要从当地导师那里学习非暴力，但是如何设计这些方案的想法是通过慈善机构和智囊团的全球网络分享的。美国国际开发署(USAID)和世界银行(World Bank)等捐助机构在促进妇女财产权方面做得相当不错，尽管它们在阿富汗的努力即将化为乌有。

外交政策不应过于天真。国家有切身利益，需要威慑敌人。地缘政治不应该仅从女性主义的角度来考量，也不应该仅从经济或防治核扩散的角度来看待。但如果决策者不考虑女性的利益，就不可能理解整个世界。

重点词汇

heed

noun [ U ]

UK/hiːd/ US/hiːd/

attention

注意，关注

ropy

adjective

uk informal (also ropey)UK/ˈrəʊ.pi/ US/ˈroʊ.pi/ropier | ropiest

in bad condition or of low quality

质量差的；差劲的，糟糕的

in jeopardy

in danger of being damaged or destroyed

处于危险之中

The lives of thousands of birds are in jeopardy as a result of the oil spill.石油泄漏使成千上万只鸟的生命受到威胁。

bequeath 

英 [bɪˈkwiːð]  美 [biˈkwið] 

v. 遗赠，遗留

misogynist

noun [ C ]

UK/mɪˈsɒdʒ.ən.ɪst/ US/mɪˈsɑː.dʒən.ɪst/

a man who hates women or believes that men are much better than women

厌恶女人者，嫌忌女人者

tradeoff

n. 权衡；取舍；权衡取舍；折中

be on to something

认识到重要意义；会产生重要结果

subjugation

英: [ˌsʌbdʒʊ'ɡeɪʃ(ə)n] 

n. 征服；镇压；克制

oppress

verb

UK/əˈpres/ US/əˈpres/  (RULE)

to govern people in an unfair and cruel way and prevent them from having opportunities and freedom

压迫；压制；欺压

skewed

英 [skjuːd]  

adj. 偏的;歪斜的

rebel

美: [rɪ'bel]   英: ['reb(ə)l] 

adj. 造反的

polygamy

noun

UK/pəˈlɪɡ.ə.mi/ US/pəˈlɪɡ.ə.mi/

the fact or custom of being married to more than one person at the same time

多配偶（制）；一夫多妻

brooding

adjective

UK/ˈbruː.dɪŋ/ US/ˈbruː.dɪŋ/

making you feel uncomfortable or worried, as if something bad is going to happen

令人忧心忡忡的

He stood there in the corner of the room, a dark, brooding presence.他站在房间的角落里，阴沉忧虑。

spoils

美 pl. /spɔɪlz/

战利品 【军事】

Kashmir

英 [kæʃˈmɪə]  

n. 克什米尔(南亚一地区,约2/5为巴基斯坦控制,其余为印度控制)

Guinea

noun

UK/ˈɡɪn.i/ US/ˈɡɪn.i/

a country in west Africa

几内亚（西非国家）

coup

noun [ C ]

UK/kuː/ US/kuː/

coup noun [C] (TAKE POWER)

C2(also coup d'état, UK /ˌkuː.deɪˈtɑː/  US plural coups d'état)

a sudden illegal, often violent, taking of government power, especially by part of an army

政变；（尤指）军事政变

keep a lid on

控制住

kinship

英 [ˈkɪnʃɪp]  美 [ˈkɪnˌʃɪp] 

n. 亲属关系；亲切感

repel

英 [rɪˈpɛl]  美 [rɪˈpɛl] 

v. 击退，抵制；使厌恶；排斥

tit for tat

noun [ U ]

UK/ˌtɪt fə ˈtæt/ US/ˌtɪt fɚ ˈtæt/

actions done intentionally to punish other people because they have done something unpleasant to you

以牙还牙，针锋相对

clan

noun [ C, + sing/pl verb ]

UK/klæn/ US/klæn/

a large family, or a group of people who share the same interest

家族，氏族；（享有共同利益的）群体，集团

Is/Are the whole clan coming to visit you for Christmas?你那一大帮亲戚圣诞节都要来看望你吗？

feud

noun [ C ]

UK/fjuːd/ US/fjuːd/

an argument that has existed for a long time between two people or groups,  causing a lot of anger or violence

夙怨；世仇；长期争斗

a family feud 家族世仇

spatter

英 [ˈspætə]  美 [ˈspætər] 

v. 污蔑；溅，洒

sahel

英 ['sɑ:hel]  美 ['sɑ:hel] 

萨赫勒地区

divvy

英 [ˈdɪvɪ]  美 [ˈdɪvi] 

vi. 分配

loot

英 [luːt]  美 [lut] 

n. 战利品，赃物，钱；洗劫，抢夺

v. 洗劫，抢夺

dysfunctional

adjective

UK/dɪsˈfʌŋk.ʃən.əl/ US/dɪsˈfʌŋk.ʃən.əl/

not behaving or working normally

失调的，失常的

alienate

美: ['eɪliə.neɪt]   英: ['eɪliəneɪt] 

v. 疏远；离间

hefty

adjective

UK/ˈhef.ti/ US/ˈhef.ti/

large in amount, size, force, etc.

（数额、尺寸、力量等）大的，可观的

dowry

noun [ C ]

UK/ˈdaʊ.ri/ US/ˈdaʊ.ri/

in some societies, an amount of money or property that a woman's parents give to the man she marries

嫁妆，陪嫁

compile

verb [ T ]

UK/kəmˈpaɪl/ US/kəmˈpaɪl/  (GATHER TOGETHER)

to collect information from different places and arrange it in a book, report, or list

汇编；编制

patrilocal

英 [pætri'ləukəl, pei-]  美 [pætri'ləukəl, pei-] 

adj. (婚后) 居住在男方的

signatory

美: ['sɪɡnə.tɔri]   英: ['sɪɡnət(ə)ri] 

n.签字人

compromise

noun

UK/ˈkɒm.prə.maɪz/ US/ˈkɑːm.prə.maɪz/

an agreement in an argument in which the people involved reduce their demands or change their opinion in order to agree

妥协；折中；让步；和解

It is hoped that a compromise will be reached in today's talks.希望今天的会谈能达成妥协。

stitch-up

美 [ˈstɪtʃ ʌp]

v. 故意欺骗；诬陷；陷害；操纵局势（非正式）

non-combatant

n.（军队中的）非战斗人员；（战争时期的）平民

Liberia

noun

UK/laɪˈbɪə.ri.ə/ US/laɪˈbɪr.i.ə/

a country in west Africa

利比里亚（西非国家）

ghastly

adjective

UK/ˈɡɑːst.li/ US/ˈɡæst.li/

extremely bad

极坏的；极糟糕的

What ghastly weather! 天气太糟糕了！

It was all a ghastly mistake.这是极其严重的错误。

impoverish

美: [ɪm'pɑv(ə)rɪʃ]   英: [ɪm'pɒvərɪʃ] 

v. 使贫穷；使贫瘠

harp on (about sth)

to talk or complain about something many times

反复谈论；不停抱怨；喋喋不休 责骂；批评；申斥

He's always harping on about lack of discipline. 他总是抱怨纪律涣散。

go up in smoke

Something that goes up in smoke fails to produce the result that was wanted.

未达到预期的效果，化为泡影

When the business went bankrupt, 20 years of hard work went up in smoke.公司破产时，20年的苦心经营化为乌有。

deter

美: [dɪ'tɜr]  英: [dɪ'tɜː(r)] 

v. 阻止；制止；威慑；使不敢;吓住

foe

noun [ C ]

 UK/fəʊ/ US/foʊ/

an enemy

敌人

non-proliferation

noun [ U ]

UK/ˌnɒn.prə.lɪf.ərˈeɪ.ʃən/ 

the controlling of the spread and/or amount of something, especially nuclear or chemical weapons

（尤指对核武器或化学武器的）不扩散，防止扩散

a non-proliferation treaty 防止核扩散条约